Category Archives: Intelligence

Defense Perspective on Forming an ‘Instant Team’

Once again, H/T to WRSA.  Long, but very fruitful reading, IOW, worth the time.  Emphasis mine.  The book is worth buying; lots of good tips.  Please add your thoughts on alternatives/options in the comments.  I recommend getting the book, “Concrete Jungle,” by the author, Clay Martin.  You can get it here.  Lastly, I, along with my fellow NCO’s on active duty had occassional chances to be provided training by Green Berets dropping in (literally) from time to time at our training location.  When given that opportunity, we jumped at the chance and spent all the allotted time taking notes, asking questions, and paying rapt attention to these fine soldiers.  It made us much, much better at what we did in Air Base Ground Defense.  Getting this book would classify as one of those, ‘opportunities.’

Off The Reservation

Concrete Jungle .pdf

Caveats- This isn’t a finished work, but I felt compelled to help my people. It was also not written directly with these riots in mind. But it will work for them too. It also likely isn’t going to unfuck all of your problems tonight. But it is going to give you some things to think about, while you try to survive till the morning light. Last, there will no doubt be revisions from this to a finished product. But we don’t have time for that shit right now. Strongly recommend you read this, read my columns on guns, and then go talk to your neighbors. No one is coming to save you. Government has shown itself impotent, and all the cards left  are in your hands. If we fail, if we cede our cities to gangs of vandals and looters, our nation is over. I, for one, refuse to live on my knees, and I hope you do too. Even if it means dying on our feet.

NEW CHAPTER UP FRONT, OLDER ONES BELOW:

Savages on the warpath- dealing with rioters

One of the major problems an urban survivor can face is a riot. Riots are springing up with more and more frequency, as well as more violence and destruction as cities adopt new softer policies towards them. More so than at any other time in our history, you may find yourself very much all alone as politicians choose to stand down police. It is not without precedent already to have mob violence so widespread that all the cops are already tied up. And unfortunately for you, the city fathers probably care more about Wells Fargo than they do about your apartment.

If you took the previous advice about building a network of allies, this is going to be a lot easier to deal with. Plug in your people as outlined in this chapter where they fit. But for overall defensive strategy, we will build out the plan like you didn’t. A storm of mob violence can take you buy surprise, and maybe you haven’t had time to organize yet. As Rummy said, “You go to war with the army you’ve got.”

So lets say the Orcs are streaming out of Mordor, and you only friends are Becky and Bob that were focused on brunch until nine seconds ago. What are you going to do? Step one, is go find out who is willing to help you defend the neighborhood. You aren’t going to stop a wave of locusts alone. Go door to door, and get a crew together. Bring everyone to a central meeting spot, and figure out what you have for weapons.

Unlike a lot of what I have preached, this defensive plan is very weapons centric. If you don’t have firearms, I absolutely do not recommend a defense in the streets. Melee weapons, in this context, are absolutely no substitute. Riot cops can and do push around a much larger force, using only clubs and shields. But only because they have trained to act as a single organism, like a phalanx of old. And they are still backed up by guns, something worth noting. If as a smaller and untrained force you attempt the same, you are likely to get routed. If you have introduced weapons to the fight, and your side breaks and runs, you are very likely to die. The howling mob will tear you limb from limb, blood lust fueled by the sight of your retreat.

So guns are important. If you have none of them, you are in deep shit. In this case, I highly recommend that you and your team collapse to one house or apartment. You could also conceivably hold the entrance to your building, if construction favors the defender. In certain cases, melee weapons could actually carry the day. How?

With edged weapons, one man can in fact hold a doorway. If you are in a solid building, and have nothing but a spear or sword, you may be able to do enough damage to turn the crowd back. Ten or so of you could conceivably protect a single house, if you use the proper tactics.

We just saw in Dallas a shop owner with a sword get beat to death by a crowd. May he rest in peace, and I mean this in no way to speak ill of the dead. But he made two massive mistakes, though his heart was in the right place. First, he waded into the mob, meeting it head on. Which is how he got hit in the back of the head, knock to the ground, and stomped to death. Don’t do that, unless you happen to be a Peloponnesian War re-enactor, and are backed up by a shield wall.

The second thing he did wrong was how he employed his weapon. He swung it. A mistake that any of us could easily make. Humans are hardwired to slash and hack, as that is our most common usage of the blade. Think about how you use a knife in the kitchen, or even butchering an animal. You cut and slice, rarely if ever do you stab. But a stab or thrust is the preferred offense of spear or sword, for a number of reasons. This is why Roman Legions worked so hard to drill stabbing motions into their soldiers.

First, a stab is harder to dodge. The arc required for a swing means you have a chance to get out of the way. A straight line attack is not only faster, but harder to step out of. Not to mention, it offers very little chance of being disarmed. You can step inside of a swing, or let it pass by you and counter strike. Two feet of razor sharp steel offers almost nothing to grab in a linear attack.

Second, a stabbing attack is more lethal. Slash wounds can look horrific, but even being opened up neck to hip is something you can survive. Especially if it is shallow. Stabbing wounds that hit vital areas, not so much. Have you ever wondered why European sword technology went from broad slashing sabers to thin, pointy rapiers? Its because against un armored opponents, the rapier is actually more deadly. Something the size of you pinky finger, stabbed into your chest wall, is very likely to kill you. Three inches of penetration is usually enough to hit anything vital. It might not look like much, but it is absolutely deadly.

So while I don’t recommend holding a doorway alone as option one, it will work. If you have absolutely no other choice, it can be done. Thrusting weapons, preferably with a good reach, can get it done. Situation dependent, you may be able to get multiple stabbing implements to work, like both sides of a gate or door. Not a lot of people are willingly going to try and push through a wall of blades.

The weapon of choice? Basically any sword made for stabbing would be my preferred option. Ironically enough a Roman Gladius, or a katana would work. A spear would be my next choice, with a 3-4 foot handle. In a pinch, a sharpened shovel or broomstick is fine. If you are making things up, the ideal is a small, deep penetration. A smaller pointy end usually means lighter, better balanced, and therefore faster in movement. A boar spear is fine, but a stabby bit closer to a javelin is better.

Other than that, what can you do? Think siege tactics. If a ground force is attacking, your house or building is holding the high ground. Bricks and molotovs work better with gravity assisting you. Not to mention, it allows you to get more of your people in the fight. Mobs don’t generally bring guns either, which levels the playing field significantly. Construction once again favors the defender. Can your spearmen hold the lobby? Sure. But what would help? How about 5 floors above you with boiling oil on the stove. Anything that would have worked in the middle ages is fair game here.

Now how about if you do have some firearms? That changes the calculus significantly. With some guns and the will, you may very well be able to defend your entire block.

Once again, we must admit that just one firearm isn’t going to turn the tide. You need some help, but the odds do go up in your favor with modern weaponry. This is going to allow you to build a defense in depth, in a manner that favors your survival.

Projecting strength is a big part of how you are going to play this. Riots are basically a version of tribal warfare. Mostly it consists of a lot of noise and posturing, complete with razing easy targets. To combat this, you have to not look like an easy target.

Fortify the entry points to your selected area of defense. Cars aren’t great for actually stopping entry, but they can be used to look serious. I recommend a V shaped barrier at the front and rear of your block. This is easier to emplace and remove than a line of them, and offers better protection from ramming. The top of the V should be nearly engine block to engine block, with a three foot gap in between. The gap gives you somewhere to stand, and funnels the opposing forces into a predictable spot. If you let them, they will start jumping over the barrier. But humans tend to follow the path of least resistance, so they will generally flow the way you want to start.

Up front, you want some strength. A gun or two if you have it, though at least one needs to be back. Showing the capability to deal damage is important. With a bit of luck, this acts as deterrent enough. But don’t gamble on that alone.

The most important person in this plan isn’t at the front of the line. He is back, preferably elevated, and with a very clear view of the defensive position. This man needs to have a heart of stone. He is what is going to save you if things go south.

A designated marksman in the rear is essentially German sniper doctrine from the Great War. While other nations employed snipers primarily in the space between opposing forces, the Germans held them in the rear. This gave them a free hand to protect forward German forces. And it works the same for you.

We live in an age of cameras, and the legality of when you can open fire is extremely murky. Not to mention that for many of you, this is going to be your first time being put to the test. So it is entirely possible that you will let the mob get to close, and they will make a grab for the hardware. In such a situation, especially without training and experience, you are probably going to lose. Even getting a few rounds off isn’t going to be enough to turn the tide back.

If this happens, your rear deployed marksman absolutely must save you. If he doesn’t, all is lost. You will die. You bring a gun to the fight, and get it taken from you, I absolutely assure you they will kill you. Your friendly sniper must be capable of cleaning the locusts off you, so that you can get your tools back in the fight.

If it does turn into a firefight, you need to be over the top with violence of action. A mob could actually more than likely overpower even a trained, equipped infantry squad. IF, and only IF, it could single minded decide to do so. Fortunately, it can’t. Rioters aren’t disciplined soldiers. They are full of fight chemicals, and may rush into the breech even against stupid odds. You have to turn those into fear chemicals, as fast as you can. Break the mobs will on the anvil of superior firepower, and it will disintegrate. Hurt them bad enough, quickly enough, and they will be incapable of reforming.

A gun or two on the rooftops also helps you cover all the avenues of approach. What is to prevent the mob from just bypassing your street, and coming through backyard? Eyes in the sky. It isn’t fool proof, but it helps with economy of force.

What else? Razor wire if you can find it. Lots and lots of fire extinguishers. A riot is like a force of nature. It will eventually blow itself out. You just have to be prepared to stand fast long enough for that to happen.

Introduction

Our nation seems divided today in a way that it hasn’t since the 1860’s, though they did try pretty hard in the 1960’s. We are sitting on powder keg, with half of the involved parties chain smoking, and the other half asking for a light. Things have the potential to get really ugly, really fast, and after that happens is not the time to open this book. To borrow a proverb from the Chinese, the best time to learn how to survive is 5 years ago. And the second best time is right now.

We have a unique problem in the United States, which us Veterans have lamented many times as our hands were tied by clueless bureaucratic masters. We have protected our civilian population so well since 1941, that most of them have no idea how the world actually works. That often, might does make right. That sometimes you have no good options. And most importantly, that not only do bad things happen to good people, it happens to them on an alarmingly regular basis.

We haven’t had actual dark times here since the last of the Indian Wars, which still didn’t affect anyone outside of the frontier. It has made our population soft and weak, which will have a cascading effect of systems failure at the first sign of real trouble.

As a retired Green Beret, I feel a certain moral obligation to help those that want to help themselves, which is what this book is about. Like a return on investment for your tax dollars. I don’t have all the answers, but I can at least say my opinion is tempered by real world experience both spotting unrest, and surviving it to tell the tale.

Speaking collectively for my brethren, like the Royal I, I/we have a unique insight gifted to us by the GWOT conflict. Fighting in both theaters involved shifting alliances of multiple factions, even amongst the alleged “government troops.” Not dying in your sleep was often a matter of reading the tea leaves correctly. Running our own intelligence networks for two decades has also given us an uncanny ability to smell the fire coming, long before you can see the flames. On a personal note, I have seen more than a few cities burn. Some of those times I was holding the matches, and at least one of them I had nothing to do with, but they all yielded lessons.

Aside from correctly predicting when things are about to go pear shaped, we have learned some very important things about staying alive, which I am sharing with you in this volume. The Concrete Jungle is an unforgiving environment, with its own unique problems and solutions. It is best to enter that arena as prepared as you can be. If we call this book the diamond stone, all I need you to do is be the steel.

I would also like to caveat up front that I hope I’m wrong. Nobody in this world appreciates the little things more than us Veterans. Like air conditioning, and having our garbage picked up on Tuesday, and not catching random sniper fire. For those of us that have seen the horrors of war, we don’t ever wish to see them here. But we also aren’t stupid, and we’ve already proven we don’t back down from a fight. Not ever.

So strap in and hold on to your ass, time to go for a ride.

Chapter 1

Chapter 1- Not the Guns.

It is a uniquely American problem to think first that we can buy our way out of trouble. Every prepper forum or survival site in the country has a section devoted to hardware that is twice the size of its nearest competition. For many people, a survival plan stops and ends at mountain of guns and ammo. A few then branch out to big ticket escape vehicles and elaborately stocked provisions. The truly big baller class endlessly prattle on about bug out locations, usually a cabin/fortress in the mountains, self contained and off the grid. But I have bad news. Your Visa card isn’t going to save you. You are going to actually need to do hard stuff, not just go on a camo clad multi year Black Friday shopping spree.

Now maybe I made a classic mistake in grabbing audience attention, and this book is now a permanent resident of your bottom shelf. Maybe I should have started with how to use a CARVER matrix ( Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability) for blowing up bridges, or 37 recipes for dragons breath shotgun shells. Hell, maybe I’m just mad I didn’t start selling water filters in the 90’s, instead of enlisting. But if you stop and think for a second, you’re going to realize that I’m right.

I’ll give you two competing examples. First is the army of Saudi Arabia, especially the commando high speed units. They have more whiz bang toys than you or I have ever had. From the ultra Gucci uniforms, to the finest German scopes, no expense is spared. And they couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag. Example two is our own Vietnam era MACV/SOG troops. The equipment they used is laughable by modern standards, from radios to rifles. Yet they carved a path of destruction and bodies across that green hell battlefield completely out of proportion to their numbers. Even in their 80’s now, I wouldn’t want to tangle with them. I’m betting it hurts to get a walker shoved up your ass sideways, and would prefer to skip first hand experience.

If step number one isn’t a trip to the gun shop with all your money, gold coins and silverware, what is? Glad you asked. You already completed step one by recognizing trouble is brewing, which is probably why you bought this book. Even if you are only here as an apocalypse voyeur, some part of you knows, mayhem is in the forecast.

Now on to step two, which is arguably the most important thing you are going to do to ensure your survival. It runs counter to the common wisdom, for a variety of reasons. But it is what actually matters. You need to engage with your neighbors, and start building an alliance of local help.

Woah, hold the phone! You mean actually talk to real life human beings? Yes, I do. You are going to need to engage in some of that old fashioned, face to face conversation stuff we did back in the old days. For many of you, this is going to be the most difficult phase. We have all been conditioned to use our smart phones for everything, it isn’t uncommon to see people texting each other at the same table anymore. For you young people, it is entirely possible you don’t even know how to have an “ in real life” conversation. Other flavors of preppers are going to have a different issue with this, sticking the paranoia genie back in the bottle.

For reasons I can’t fathom, many in the survival movements will have an intimate conversation with internet strangers about every detail of their plan, but will clam up like a mafia courier the second it comes to real people. Which makes absolutely no sense. You have no idea who you are talking to on the internet, no matter how carefully you check. The like minded person you are talking to about “how to shoot down dem gubbmint’ black helicopters with a deer rifle” may very well be a federal agent, recording it all in a chat log. You don’t know who anyone actually is in digital land. Even if they are a famous member of “the movement”, you have no idea what their real motivation is. Alex Jones could have his own FBI badge for all you know.

Now I am not saying divulge all your secrets to the UPS guy and post up a list of your supplies in the town square. We will talk about OPSEC a little further on, but let’s just say in short, that would be an invitation to get killed and robbed. But you are going to need other people, for a variety of reasons. Lots of the prepper minded like to live a fantasy of them against the world, one extremely well armed man prevailing against all odds. That is Walter Mitty delusion at it’s finest, real life doesn’t work that way. I lay the blame for this at the feet of 80’s action movies, followed closely by the popular fiction class I call “ Navy SEAL turned Secret Service guy/Calvin Klein model saves the day, because he is smarter than the entire US Government put together.”

The problem with the lone action hero trope is that it is no way rooted in the realm of possibilities. Yes, one man can overcome incredible odds, and it does occasionally happen. Alvin York for instance. But the baddest war hero to ever walk the earth would succumb to sufficient numbers. The reason we recognize with medals and awe the occasional one guy lop sided win, is because it is so rare. Let me put an image in your mind, to illustrate the point. In a fight to the death, we have pitted Chuck Liddel in his prime, against a certain number of rabid toddlers. Closed room, so escape isn’t an option. Can Chuck prevail against one? Of course, without breaking a sweat. How about 20? Sure, the odds are still on his side. How about 10,000? Not a chance. Not only is that 300,000 pounds of rabid toddler, the sheer mass of which would crush any human. But I doubt even a professional fighter has the cardio to throw 10,000 punches or kicks in a row.

So numbers help. They aren’t all important, but at a certain tipping point they do make the difference. As Stalin was fond of saying, “Quantity has a quality all its own.” But that isn’t the only reason to need friends in the fight.

I’m a pretty well qualified soldier, and I have seen some of that fancy combat all the kids are getting into these days. But how well can even someone with my resume do all the tasks necessary for combat? Keep in mind, I did this full time for 20 years, and was paid very well to do so. And part of the weekly task on an SF team is cross training, dedicated time for the team specialist to teach other team members his job skills. After a decade and half, the Medic is still a better medic than me. The Engineer is still better at being an engineer. Just because I can slap on a tourniquet and stick in a chest tube, does not mean I can take the Medics place, at least by choice. He spent time not only at a specialized school learning medicine while I was learning to talk to satellites, but practicing his craft for years and years.

At the heart of this is another Hollywood trope, the super ninja that can do everything. James Bond speaks 9 languages, gunfights like Wyatt Earp, beats down professional fighters, and drives like Mario Andretti after a bump of coke. How long, in real terms, would it take one human being to master all those skills? There are just not enough hours in the day. You can find some humans with incredibly diverse skill sets, but they are beyond rare. And at the level you might expect from movies, they don’t exist.

Don’t feel bad. Growing up in the military, I expected CIA dudes to be Jason Bourne come to life. Turns out, not so much. In fact, they suck so bad at gunfighter skills that they outsource that to….. Army dudes. Or ex-Army dudes, same thing. Real life experience shows over and over again, none of us have the cranial capacity to be everything at once.

So you are going to need other people to help provide skills you don’t have, for a start. It isn’t the only reason, but it is a damn good one. This is so high on the list, we actually cover it in detail in another chapter, building your ODA from scratch.

While those are all good and practical, the biggest motivator for you to engage your neighbors is a bit more subversive. This involves a little bit of a tangent into story time, but it is relevant to the subject at hand.

Part of the reason I wrote this book, and you should read it, has to do directly with my background in Army Special Forces, i.e. my time as a Green Beret. On this particular subject, it pays to listen to a Green Beret over any other supposed expert in the field. Because of the primary mission of a Special Forces Group, and I specify the actual US Army Special Forces Group (Airborne). Not the broadly stated any service “ Special Force” unit, commonly known now as SOF ( Special Operations Forces.) Special Forces in colloquial terms can mean Rangers, Force Recon, Omega Force, the SAS/ SBS, SEAL Team 11.5, or whatever the Air Force calls its guys this week. In technical terms, not to take anything away from those other ninjas, the Army has units actual named Special Forces. And we wear a funny green hat, hence our unit nick name, Green Berets.

Of the 5 primary missions of Special Forces (SF), 2 are absolutely unique to us across the US Military. Those are UW ( Unconventional Warfare), and FID ( Foreign Internal Defense). UW, in layman’s terms, means how to start an insurgency and manage a guerrilla war. FID is the opposite side of the coin, it is how to assist a friendly government and keep it from being toppled by an insurgency, while destroying a guerrilla army someone else built.

Now I am not just trying to talk smack here, with the inter-service rivalry, my guys are cool and everyone else sucks bit. Far from it. In fact, if I had to place a wager on who I think is the best the in US military on average, I would pick the Air Force SOF. Hat tip TACP/JTAC’s, you win this round. That would be if I was selecting the most well rounded force, and judging them across the spectrum of combat missions. They do have weaknesses. At certain tasks, like CQB, they would be last on the list of choices. The Army, Navy, and USMC all make better gunfighters, in terms of personal weapons skills. And they should, that is among their primary missions. You aren’t going to let the TACP be number one man through the smoking hole after breach. That isn’t his job. But pound for pound, I stand by them as the best all around at real combat skills. Most of which don’t apply to surviving the type of conflict this book was written to address.

FID/ UW skills are not sexy, they are never going to make a movie about them. Probably most of the reason they aren’t part of the SEAL ( Pronounced Squeel, for the noise they make when they run out of tanning lotion) mission set is exactly that. But they do work, and they work in most cases better than some ill conceived commando raid bullshit.

UW simplified goes a little something like this. Aforementioned non gunfighter Agency dude, using the skills he has, identifies an enemy nation, ripe for the overthrow. Usually meaning factions already exist trying to do just that. He phones the appropriate people to have an SF Team or Teams give it a push. SF shows up by whatever means- HALO drop, scuba insert, or more likely the regional equivalent of a Greyhound bus- the less sexy, the better. SF guys assess the factions, talk over grievances, break bread, and hand out bags of money as needed. It takes time, and a lot of running of the mouth, but they are looking for specific things. What motivates this opposition faction, or that one? Who is both most likely to win, and then likely to be a good long term ally for our national interest? What is the acceptable balance of those two things, if one faction isn’t best at both criteria? What do they need to succeed, and are we willing to pay it? Then, and only then, do you get down to the work of teaching illiterate peasants how to zero a rifle and conduct a combined arms assault. Ground work first. Then you build an army. Then you use that army, and hope your own government doesn’t pull the rug out from under you mid stroke.

Reaching back to the formation of Special Forces in the 50’s, this has proven to be an extremely successful model. Across decades, it has worked from one side of the planet to the other, often in places and conflicts American’s have never heard of. That is another bit of the beauty. Done properly, the entire enterprise is deniable. The newly crowned Emperor of Kerflakistan isn’t going to publicly credit the Great Satan, any more than we are going to admit we did the heavy lifting. Job done, everyone goes their separate ways, and sweep any messy bits under the carpet.

And while the job is unique in the US military to SF, that doesn’t mean other countries haven’t created similar units. The British and the Russians are good at it, and have been for a long time. The whole bit with Crimea’s annexation by Russia is a good example. If that was organic, so is a burger from McDonalds. The Quds force from Iran is fantastic at this method, and the Chinese are actively perfecting the craft as we speak.

What does this have to do with your survival strategy? A lot. In fact, most of your survival strategy should be modeled from FID, unless you think the government is the bad guys, in which case it should be modeled on UW. Aside from the part about being overwhelmed by sheer numbers, it also helps you understand what is going on.

Generally speaking, survival is a regional issue. Not to say the causes of the crisis can’t start far away, they can. And it does pay to at least observe national and global news, looking for potential cataclysms. But your actual day to day concerns are local, and that doesn’t change as a national or international crisis unfolds. I live in the Pacific Northwest. There is literally not one thing that could happen in NYC tomorrow that directly affects me right now. Do I want to know if they have an Ebola outbreak, or get nuked off the planet? Yes I do. And that will dictate some of the steps I need to take in the near future. But whatever ripples their problems create, I will still need to deal with them on the local level.

So much like an SF guy would do in a foreign nation, you need to work on building your own intelligence network. Let’s throw in a caveat, as we live in the digital age. Can’t you just read the local news or use the internet? I don’t recommend it, not as a sole source of information. Not even a little. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, and I don’t think you should be either. But while I don’t wear a tinfoil hat everyday, I do keep one in the closet for special occasions. And I would ask you this- what major news scoop, in the last 30 years, was picked up by a news station first? Not one. And in a major crisis, how hard do you think it would be to censer all the media outlets that exist? Not very. More importantly, signs slip through the cracks with media outlets. They are looking for the big story, because that gets the big reads. To properly gauge any situation, you need to look at a great deal of factors, not just the big ones.

Who knows about local travel habits, and if there has been either an influx of people going coming in or leaving? How about the local gas station attendant? Or the manager of a local motel. Who knows if shipping is on time, and the supply chain unbroken? How about a local grocery store or Wal-Mart manager. Who has on the ground eyes at a regional level, and might have seen anomalies close enough to affect you soon? How about your local truck driver, especially if he runs the same route daily or weekly. A wealth of information exists, but it rarely falls into the hands of someone that can use all of it. That is among the first things you need to change.

All these bits of knowledge are available, you just have to find a way to get them. And this leads us to the idea of actually talking to human beings. Internet chat boards, news sights, and the like can best be equated to SIGINT, or signals intelligence. Signals intelligence can be faked, and it can be drowned out with white noise. Talking to people is HUMINT, or human intelligence, and it requires some skills to sift through as well.

Some HUMINT skills can’t be taught, they can only be gained through experience. Humans sometimes lie, and they sometimes exaggerate. While this can be intentional for deception, more often it is merely to impress you, or tell a better story. How can you tell? First, life experience. The more you talk to humans, while trying to sift for facts, the more you will pick up on these trends. If you don’t know how to spot bullshit, you need to start learning. Obvious tells include inconsistency in facts when asked about details, changes in speech pattern at relevant points that should be seared in memory, and entirely to much badassery on the part of the story teller. This isn’t to say exaggerators should be cut from your network, but their information should always be suspect. One good way to start learning these skills is to read up on police interrogation methods, in addition to practice before you need it.

The absolute best method for sifting information is having multiple sources in the same arena, and comparing the data they give you. I’m not going to dive deep on handling assets, because Uncle Sugar might decide to smack my pee pee if I do. But much of what is alleged to be “deep, dark, espionage secrets” is actually just common sense. If you have three truck drivers that work in a similar area, and the information one them is feeding you is way off track of the others, what can you discern? First, one of them might be feeding you horse pucky. Second, the other two may be plants working against you, feeding you mis-information. Welcome to the forest of mirrors.

All well and good, if you already have a network. But I’m assuming you don’t. How are you going to fix that? Very carefully, and very slowly. Things like this aren’t built overnight, and if you push hard, you are just going to draw attention to yourself. To correctly build a network of informants, you need to understand it is a long haul. And some of your best informants won’t even realize they are giving you the goods. As previously mentioned, this is an unnatural act for most of us, talking to strangers with the intent of gleaning information. It also goes against the grain if you have been prepping in secret, hiding canned beans in floor boards and the like. But there is a right and a wrong way. Let’s look at the wrong way first-

Starbucks Barista- “ Welcome to Starbucks, may I help you?”

You ( palms sweating, whispering conspiratorially)-“ Yes. I will have a Carmel Macchiato. Also, would you like to act as an informant for my militia, keeping us posted on the comings and goings of shifty eyed new arrivals. We can’t afford to pay you, but you will be remembered when the revolution starts. Play your cards right, and you may even become concubine to his Holiness The Warlord Steve, Master and Commander of the Plains of Nebraska.”

Starbucks Barista- “ …..” ( Stares in horror while simultaneously pressing the 911 panic button under the counter.)

Obviously there are a lot of things wrong with that scenario, but which one should have stuck out first? Starbucks. Have you ever seen a slow one? You have zero chance of recruiting a source in a fast paced environment. So save the sales pitch for someone that isn’t your UPS driver or equivalent. At least while they are at work. A UPS driver would be a great asset, if you land him off the clock.

I suggest you start with what the military calls a confidence target, one that is easy to land. Two quick examples are the gas station attendant at a non busy hour, or clerk at a local corner store. Taking the gas station attendant, how do you break the ice?

You- “ Good Morning Jimmy” ( You know his name, because you come here all the time. You learned his name from his name tag on visit one, and called him by his name on the 5 subsequent visits. Establishing a layer of familiarity.)

Gas Station Attendant Jimmy- “ Good Morning Bill. Coffee, and the usual?”

You- “ Coffee for sure. By the way, you’re low on Irish Cream. About that usual, I’m not so sure. I think the new folks in town are buying up all the winners.” ( You have spent a couple bucks establishing a routine, for exactly this moment. Now, one of two things is true. Either you know the area is having an influx of new people, and are both confirming that data, and setting Jimmy up for the pitch. Or you are fishing in the dark, to see if Jimmy will tell you lots of new people are around. Jimmy will have one of two answers, both of which you should be prepared to handle. Because you rehearsed both bits, in case.)

Jimmy- “ New people, that’s rich. All I see is people leaving town. Half my normal customers tanked up last week, headed for the hills. Weird, right?” ( This takes you to decision tree 1.)

You- feigning light laughter- “ I know right? Hell, I’m starting to feel like this is an episode of the twilight zone. Ya know, a fella could really start to wonder at times like this. You know, I don’t scare easy, but things are getting down right spooky. A man can’t be to careful these days. Actually, I wonder if you wouldn’t mind keeping some tabs, just between us…….”

What if Jimmy has a different answer? Glad you asked.

Jimmy- “ Crazy isn’t it? People fleeing California, and probably bringing their problems with them. I don’t like the way they show up here, flush with cash from selling that McMansion in the hills, pushing us all to the side….”

Oh man, bingo! Not only have you confirmed data, but you have learned Jimmy’s disdain for the new people. That sets him up for an entirely different pitch. But just like a deal the Devil would make, not too much up front now.

What if neither of those things happen, and Jimmy just acts indifferent to your lack of scratch ticket purchase? Then you leave and try again another day. If a couple of reels don’t work, then you move on to a new gas station. And you keep going until you have your network filled out. You might end up with five coffee’s and a dozen $1 scratch tickets every Tuesday morning, but that is the price of doing business.

Networking, for lack of a better term, is also good for a great many things besides just intelligence. In survival terms, it is also important for supplies. That doesn’t matter much right now, while the economy is still humming, and the American Express still works. But what about when things fall apart? Would you rather be friends with the local grocer, guarding his deliver trucks against the howling mob for a can of baked beans? Or trying to elbow through the howling mob upfront, desperate to trade your last remaining items of value for that same can of baked beans? When things get tough, people turn tribal, and they do it fast. Much better to be someone they knew from the previous life, than a strange face showing up asking for favors.

I want to interject a couple of things here at the end, guiding principles for dealing with humans in general. Number one is, don’t be a user. You need to have something to barter with in most all of these situations, with the possible exception of the people that just like to talk. And you are still giving them a sounding board, which is what most of them want anyway. What I’m saying is, don’t start washing the local grocer’s car every Sunday, hoping he will remember you when the trouble starts. You are always going to get further with a genuine relationship, and those are hard to fake.

Number two is, don’t promise something you can’t deliver. This was a principle we always tried to stick too, even overseas with dirt worshiping heathens. It is bad for business, and should only be done as an absolute last resort. Not only will you permanently lose an ally, but you might go far enough to make a bitter enemy. If things go pear shaped, you will have plenty of enemies without making extras unnecessarily.

Number three relates directly to number two. Don’t think short term. It is easy to cut all kinds of deals, back stab as needed, and flee into the sunset with your weeks rations. But what happens when the sun comes up on day 8? You should be laying a ground work for a sustainable relationship, because you never know how long a crisis will last. Don’t burn bridges with anyone if you can avoid it, and at least try and leave the pylons if you can’t. Crow may be on the menu, as you can never fully anticipate who will have a resource you need to survive the night.

In closing this chapter out, I want to leave you with a story. Not a cool war story, but a good story nonetheless. And a lot more relevant to where you sit today.

A few years ago, I was driving across the country with my soon to be wife. I lived on the East Coast at the time, and skipping over the mushy stuff, I had made a snap decision to move to Idaho. The last day of said road trip, one of my soon to be step daughters decided to runaway from her father’s house, which greatly upset soon to be wife. So I did what people like me do. I set out to solve the problem.

Two weeks later, and many trailer parks kicked over, I had her back in custody. No small feat, the kid can run. There were a lot of strange looks from the extended family, and no small amount of pats on the back. But only one person asked the right question. How, exactly, had I run this teenager down, in a city where the number of people I knew, I could count on one hand? I didn’t have the knowledge available to find Red Lobster, much less a run away with a deep network. For good measure, I was still pretty recently retired from the Army, and I looked like an absolute psycho. I had 10 inch Mohawk, I’m 6’2”, and I’m built like a linebacker. Not exactly subtle.

I succeeded because I know how to not only build networks, but infiltrate and destroy them. Within a few days, I had informants in every neighborhood on the bad side of town. I used a lot of carrot, and a little bit of stick when needed. At a total price of a 6 pack of Rolling Rock and a few packs of smokes, I bought all the information necessary to piece it together. And I succeeded where many natives had in the past failed. The lesson here is directly tied to your survival strategy. The scary guy isn’t the one that is willing to shoot you. Those are a dime a dozen in any conflict, as well as among any criminal element. The actual scary guy is the one that can find you, no matter where you try to hide. Information is power.

 

Chapter 2

Common Sense Planning, aka the sky isn’t falling. Yet.

There is a reason you picked up this book, and I doubt it was idle curiosity. Maybe you started seeing glitches in the Matrix, and you are questioning the future stability of our nation. Maybe you had bad experience recently, like owning a pharmacy in Ferguson, Missouri. Maybe you have seen a natural disaster strike, and the feral humans that come after. Whatever that reason is, it is time to start taking control of your life.

I foresee more political violence on our horizon, which tends to be centralized to major cities, which I why I wrote this book. You may disagree with that hypothesis, and have one of your own. But regardless of complete economic collapse, foreign invasion, or zombie apocalypse, I have good news. The planning is the same for all of them.

The military teaches all kinds of whiz bang planning methods, most famously MDMP, or the military decision making process. It has dozen of steps, dozens more sub-steps, along with a matrix of weighted values, ending with a mathematical certainty of the right choices. I could write an entire 600 page book just on it, and it would join the tombs of others covering the same material. But I have bad news. The entire process is nonsense, and a waste of your time.

The worst thing the Army ever did was attempt the “cookbook” method for WW2, and stick with it afterward. This institutional cancer has slowly eaten its way into all the military branches, turning what should be a simple process into a time consuming, paper work intensive nightmare. The concept is this, and it was first applied to training- If you build a step by step process, and then force all the steps to be taken, the end result is always the same. For bumping up the huge numbers needed for WW2, it didn’t do a horrible job, at tasks like set up a mortar, or assemble an anti tank gun. But the same process applied to planning is foolish.

Let me put it this way, when it comes to military planning, as it has “evolved”. The operations order for the invasion of Normandy, the largest amphibious landing the world has ever seen, was 14 pages long. For a modern soldier, late in the GWOT, raiding a purse snatchers house required 120 power point slides. I’m going to go on the record as saying that is not an improvement.

So we will be putting aside any talk of consulting DOD publications. Besides, your planning needs to be a bit more vague anyway. At least your overall strategic plan. Later we will get to some more specific planning, to cover things like escape routes. But for now, you need to be thinking big picture. You, nor I, have an exact template for how the crisis is going to unfold. Therefore, a more generalized plan is in order. One thing to always remember though, as it relates to planning. As we say in the business, no plan survives contact, intact. Broken down, that means you should never be so married to your plan that you can’t adapt. If conditions change so much that your initial plan is useless, only a fool would stick to it.

We have established that your urban dwelling environment is going to face crisis, so what do you need to do first? The conventional wisdom is that you need to purchase a bug out location, stocked to the ceiling with provisions and armaments. It needs to be off the grid, large enough to accommodate you and 25 friends, complete with thousands of gallons of fuel storage, spare parts for your car, and horses for when those run out. It needs to be far from population centers, in an environment that supports sustainment farming, yet cold enough to keep refugees from beating down your door. At least one of said friends should live in the location full time, to keep bandits from taking over in your absence.

And if you have that, dear readers, you are doing awesome. But it is outside the realm of possibility for most of us, me included. I am in fact writing this while living in the city, and my bug out location consists of my quarter acre backyard. Just in raw monetary terms, you might as well add surplus F-15 fighter jets to the above list, given most of our disposable income. That is to say, it isn’t going to happen.

It would also be cool to max out your Visa card on ammo and night vision goggles the week before the crisis hits, catching that last UPS delivery and sticking Citi Bank with the bill as we descend into Mad Max world, laughing all the way at any thought of your credit score. But that is a lot like saying it would be cool to buy Apple stock in 1986. If you think you are going to get that lucky, just go buy a lottery ticket and be done. The reality is, all of us need to live like the sky isn’t falling, in case it doesn’t. By the time you are willing to go all in on the chips with whatever credit you have, that credit is likely to already be useless. You might also want to think about the price of generators on January 1st, 2000, after the Y2K scare. More than one person bet the farm on that one, and was never sadder to see the sun come up.

You need to prepare in a sustainable manner not only for your financial health, but for your sanity. If you get all spun up and start fortifying the house with sandbags, you run the risk of ending up in the asylum. So let’s all take a deep breath and think this through.

In a side step from the usual prepping manuals, the first thing you need to look at is money. This is the equivalent of looking at logistics from a military view, since you are effectively buying your own logistics train. As Napoleon said, “ Amateurs discuss tactics. Rank amateurs discuss grand strategy. The professionals discuss logistics.” Money directly affects what you can lay in for bad times, and that is way the cards fall.

The first thing you need to figure out is what kind of coins you can drop on your survival. It is easy to get all emotional and say “ ALL OF THEM! NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT!”, immediately followed by a second mortgage on your house. Don’t do that. Just like finance 101, you need to add up your bills, then see what is left over. That is your operational budget. Maybe you can increase it by cutting excess spending on frivolous crap, and I recommend you do. Dining out and beers with the boys all add up, and you may wish you spent that on bullets later. But at the end of the day, you have a finite amount of money to spend.

Once you have your budget in order, it is time to decide what you need to have on hand when the natives turn restless. The categories go something like this:

-Weapons

-Training

-Equipment

-Food

-Water

-Medical

-Escape hatch

So which one is most important? It really depends on you. A mountain of ammo in your living room is useless when there isn’t a can of Spaghetti-O’s within 50 miles. A similar mountain of beans and rice is useless if you can’t defend it from the Mongolian horde tearing down your front door. The truth is, you need a balanced approach. You need all those things, but the order is situation dependent.

Weapons get their own chapter later, so I won’t go to much into it here. But to my mind, priority one is a gun. ( Provided you live in a nation where that is possible. I guess a pike or sword if you can’t?) Whatever gun that may be, if you own just one right now, it is enough. I would sleep very well in any city having a single shot 20 gauge and a box of shells. It wouldn’t be my ideal, but it would be enough to rest easy and prioritize my needs.

If I have been so negative about hardware up till now, why I am preaching the one gun so hard? Simple. Survival types like to talk about how long you can survive without this or that, in an extreme case. You can go weeks without food, and days without water, etc. Well there is a number for how long you can go in a gun fight without a gun, and that answer is zero seconds. If you can’t defend yourself, the rest of the stuff is a moot point. Defense first, always.

Okay, so you have your grandfather’s pocket derringer, consider yourself held over. How do you fill in the rest of your needs? I suggest a list, with incremental milestones in each category. And again, much of it depends on your specific needs. Do you live in Seattle? Do you own a mop bucket? Cool, water storage is way down the list for you. Oh, you live in Phoenix, and its July? Water is probably number one. Your diabetic? Screw food and water, your first priority is an extra months supply of insulin.

With the incremental plan, you at least end up with something in each category. Just like the castle surrounded by a Ranger Company and staffed with bikini girls we mentioned at the beginning of the chapter, we all have an ideal load out. But odds are it is a long way off. Best to have a little of everything, than a best in class of one, and none of the others.

Lets break it down like this. You have $200 to spend per month on your list. That is laughable to some, and a high bar for others. Work with what you have. You also have a hand cannon and two boxes of fifty bullets, so that is taken care of for the moment. How do you spend it?

First, you need to think about how much stuff you need. That needs to be balanced with how much space you have. As a city dweller, space might mean a tiny apartment, or it might mean a house with two car garage. If you have very little storage space, you are either going to have to get creative, or make do with less. Let’s look at the ideal numbers first.

Weapons- ah ha! That gets its own chapter later. I suggest reading it before enacting this plan.

Training- Training is the one box that is never fully filled. I was a professional soldier and mercenary for two decades, and I’m still learning. Depending on your skill set, this might be a very high priority. Let’s say you have a decent weapon, but you have no idea how to use it. A $100 class at your local indoor range will do wonders for you. It won’t make you a gunfighter, but it will make you capable of hitting the broadside of a barn. At least if you are standing inside the barn when called upon to do so. If you are already weapons capable, this could be a primitive cooking class. Or a six month paramedic course. The sky is the limit. The inherent problem, however, is that the better the training, the more it costs in both time and money. Speaking for the gunfighter skills at least, good training will cost you $350-$500 a day. Figure a minimum of 7 days to become competent, and this adds up. For now, take the $100 local class, and worry about the rest later.

Equipment- It is easy to go down the rabbit hole on this one, because equipment is a broad category. For your initial stages, it mostly doesn’t matter. If you have a hand cannon, it is limited to a holster for now, and that is just in case you need to run tomorrow. A sling if you possess but a long gun. Throw in a decent pocket knife, and you are good enough for the moment.

Food- Obviously, this one is actually important. If you are a young, healthy, single person, yes, you can survive for weeks without food. It won’t be fun, but you will make it. That is not true of small children. They might survive, but the damage done to their brains and bodies by malnutrition is terrifying to contemplate. So food needs to be on the list, regardless of your status. For urban dwellers, I suggest a 3 month supply, all of it non-perishable. The internet and other survival books are chocked full of excellent storage ideas, and low cost calorie solutions. I can’t do it better than them, it isn’t my area of expertise. But I do stand by 3 months. If the supply trucks to your city aren’t running again by then, it is time to leave. And 3 months, supplemented by even occasional resupply, can easily stretch to 6 months or a year.

Water- Water is hugely important for both hygiene and drinking. I cannot stress the importance of water enough. It is, however, one of the last things I would expect to lose in a city. If the water is cut off for even a short period in a modern city, it will be time to leave, hell or high water. While unorthodox sources do exist in any urban environment, most places they don’t exist in sufficient quantity to prevent a complete catastrophe. If a metro area lost water completely and unexpectedly, I don’t expect most people have thought through the worst case scenario. This isn’t like LA going on water rationing, or Johannesburg saying they will be out of water in two months. Both of those scenarios imply forethought, and at least some government countermeasures. If we are talking the tap just shut off, and stayed off, that is an entirely different ball of wax. Figure the stores would run out of bottles on day one, and most people have zero in storage. Let’s also assume that if the water is out, the power is out, a pretty safe bet. How long before people started dropping dead in a southern city, if it was summer time? How many people in St. Louis would try and drink the river water, and how many of them would have the sense to boil it first? How many people, the city over, would know how to dig a slit trench, or at least use a bucket for waste? And how long before those same people started just dumping waste in the streets? A water crisis, at the extreme, could rapidly lead to a body crisis, beyond the ability of any government to fix. That would lead to a disease epidemic, and a cascading spiral of sickness and pestilence. Time to get out, by any means necessary. That takes things from a minor survival hassle to an abandon ship moment. Given all that, I recommend 7 days of water on hand, at a gallon per person per day. If you live in an extremely hot environment, double that.

Medical- This category is hugely important, but often forgotten. No one likes to think about getting chewed up, it doesn’t fit with our hero fantasy. We are going to gun down all the bad guys, without a scratch on us. Maybe a flesh wound that heals itself in the third act, but certainly nothing serious. Well, more wet blanket time. If you are in any kind of combat, people are going to get hurt. You are going to get hurt. You, or your people, are going to get shot. Having spent time engaged in urban combat, it isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of when. You have to be prepared to deal with this as part of the plan. We will detail medical more in depth in a later chapter, but it needs to start with two tourniquets per person. One is for you, and only you, your emergency lifeline. The other is for patching up friends. From a place like Activity Group, these are going to be about $36 apiece. Adds up quick if you have a family. The second thing in medical you can start doing, right now, is thinking about small items. Hand sanitizer and soap are huge. Prior to WW2, disease and infection did more killing than anything else in wars. All of them, ancient Greece to Gettysburg. Neosporin is cheap, and very helpful at keeping small wounds from becoming a serious problem. Medical tape and gauze solve a wide variety of problems. Don’t go crazy, but allocate some funds for certain.

Escape Hatch- Your city may not be survivable. Another dose of harsh reality. The disaster you are issued may be so bad, Bear Grylls and a team of SAS commandos wouldn’t have a chance. And if that is the case, you need to do the only logical thing. Get the hell out of Dodge! If you are just now considering the possibility of unrest, you need to figure out an exit strategy. For now it can be simple, since we will cover it in depth later. Do you have a car? If you do, what from your residence is both actually important, and will fit in that car. Next question applies if you have a car or not. Do you have a backpack, sturdy enough to hold at least bits from all of the above categories? If not, you need to find a second hand sporting goods store, stat. Anything with a name brand and not threadbare will do for the moment. Chuck some food and water inside, along with a sweater and socks. Keep it under 30 pounds. Cool, problem solved. Mostly. We will detail this up later.

Last but not least, you need paper maps, with a copy for each adult and an extra in the car, and a lensatic compass to match. Your base plan should cover an exit route in at least two different cardinal directions, by car and by foot. Get to work.

That was down and dirty, but it does cover your bases. Lets call that one the 3000 word survival plan. It isn’t perfect, but it will hold you for a short while. And now we can get down to the serious thinking. Grown up decisions and long term planning take time, and more brain power. No one expects you to enact a full conversion to the Cult of Survival overnight. But we do expect you to attend regular meetings.

From, “Busted Knuckles”

From Phil’s site.  Spreading far and wide as I can – you might consider spreading it as well.

A Quick Tutorial On How Dominion Can Alter Your Vote Straight From The Horses Mouth

Watch this, copy it and spread it around if you can.

Here is your smoking gun.

If you haven’t heard of this scumbag Coomer, you will be in the future.

Re-Post – Because this Reference is Essential!! Available for Order Now! Jack Lawson’s “Civil Defense Manual, Volumes 1 & 2

You’ve got yours and a spare, right?

Times being what they are, this is your opportunity to hedge against the on-coming communist ‘purge’ of the USA.

This is your ‘go to’ manual for protecting your community and training your neighbors! I think these are going to go like hot cakes – so order yours today!!

Order here.  Make SURE you check out the table of contents!!

The definitive guide to preparedness and civil defense for homes and neighborhoods.  Two volumes comprising 950 pages of detailed information from authoritative sources.

Jack Lawson, pseudonym of the writer, served in the United States Air Force as a missile guidance and SAFO nuclear arming controls electronics technician and was later a member of a Foreign Legion rapid response anti-terrorist unit during an anti-Communist guerilla war in Africa.

He was trained by British Commonwealth SAS and Israeli commando instructors and took part in counter insurgency operations and commando raids on Communist training camps in a number of African countries. While there he became a bodyguard for a farmer’s cooperative association in his off-duty time.

Jack is an Honorary Member of a U.S. Army Special Forces Association Chapter and for seven years served on one of the largest metropolitan police department Review Boards in the country. As a member of that Review Board, he judged the justification of Officer Involved Shootings and use of deadly force incidents.

He was also a consultant to the Officer in charge of the United States Marine Corps evaluation of Fire Force procedures for heliborne vertical envelopment anti-terrorist tactics.

Credible Intelligence or Disinformation? You Decide – II

Link.   Another perspective (has the same links as the Huckabee Op-Ed).  Other links in the post are live as of 1405L EST.

Personally, I really am hoping it’s not credible, but hey, there’s an awful lot of unelected bureaucrats serving in the White House as well as the federal government at large that are communist.

Time will tell, as it always does.

EXPOSE Sunrise

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Leaked Zoom Calls Reveals Anarchists Nationwide Plans to Disrupt US Election and Takeover Federal Buildings

We are going to be in a crisis, but we want it to be one that we are creating.
– Lisa Fithian, Trainer

WASHINGTON, DC, November 1 –Dozens of leaked internal documents and Zoom call video footage were made public today describing plans by progressive activists and federal workers to disrupt and destabilize Tuesday’s US election outcome, including plans to “shut down the White House.”

The documents and footage can be viewed at a new website http://www.sunriseexposed.com/ or https://www.exposesunrise.com/ and will be regularly updated with additional content during the next 48 hours.  All content has been handed over to law enforcement.

The information was leaked by a disaffected insider of the “Sunrise Movement,” part of a loose but extremely coordinated network of liberal activists mobilizing around the country in an effort to ferment chaos in the wake of a potential Trump victory or a contested election.

The videos and documents discuss a well-coordinated plan to shut down federal buildings (including the White House), public transportation portals, and disrupt Congress when it returns post-election.  Sunrise is an umbrella movement comprised of 400 “hubs” and hundreds of affinity groups including 350.0rg and Extinction Rebellion.

The Shut Down DC Zoom video can be found here.

At one point during a Zoom call that highlighted the role of the militant group “Shut Down DC,” a spokesman states:

We have been in discussion for a couple of months about how to respond to different contested election scenarios.  The first step is we think we need to start the post-election phase in the streets, so we invite everyone to come to BLM (Black Lives Matter) Plaza any time after 4:00 on election night.  On the 5th, we’re going to shut down the White House.  On the 6th, we’re going to shut down larger parts of DC and then the following week, all the mainstream groups are going to come to DC and try to have a march on the 7th.

The network of progressives has enlisted the several key players including Lisa Fithian, a long-time organizer and trainer including stints with Occupy Wall Street and various unions.  In the video describing tools and tactics to shut down DC, she states:

Whoever’s got the guns can win – let’s take over the buildings!  We are going to be in a crisis but we want it to be one that we are creating.  We want to make sure that we are on the offense and not the defense.  We want them to be responding to us and not us responding to them.

Another Zoom call featured federal workers, including attorneys and members of the intelligence community, conspiring to use their protected status and positions of power to disrupt and destabilize an outcome beneficial to Donald Trump.

The Federal Workers video can be found here.


Additional videos and internal documents will be uploaded in the next 48 hours on the website www.exposesunrise.com

 

 

Re-Blog: “When Deplorables Fight Back…”

Authored four days ago at, “Normal American“.  Imagine the ‘fermentation’ since this was posted.  The justifiable anger is palpable.  Here’s a taste from the blog, “The Intrepid Reporter,” here to demonstrate how hot the anger has become.

Do read the Intrepid Reporter’s entire post – it provides illuminating perspective.   The level of ‘heat’ the Left is generating from, “Deplorables” is unparalleled.  And the anger is controlled to this point, while the left grows further and further unhinged evidenced by Satanic rituals eating President Trump’s heart in effigy..on an American flag no less…in BOSTON, you know, North Church, “Two if by Land one if by Sea,” home of Paul Revere and where the USS Constitution is moored?  THAT Boston.  You can read that, here.

Here’s the video for your edfication:

I also agree with the author the people he categorizes and mentions in his post should be called what they are:  Traitors.  And dealt with as such, according to the Constitution.

It should be evident even to the most Normalcy Bias infected mind that people are damn sick and tired of living under the threat of communist ‘purges’ in the United States of America.  I  truly hope the left has a moment of pause and their leaders step back into  courteous disagreement, vice calling for executions.  Most Deplorable Americans I know are at the point of, “I  didn’t want a fight, and I’ve shown that by remaining peaceful….for now.  If you (the Left) go hot, you’re really going to regret it.”

When Deplorables Fight Back

Oct 27, 2020

The left is preparing for their long-planned purge of the deplorables. What they have not yet realized is that the chumps may decide to fight back.

Our betters envision a glorious new era in which childless middle-aged harpies run the show. We should expect Robert Reich’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission to feature live-streamed humiliation of the undesirables. Sins to be confessed include driving F-150s, reading Kelly Turnbull novels, and spurning the advances of overweight trannies. Afterwards deplorables will be put to work as field laborers on the solar plantations and America’s cultural revolution will be complete.

The ruling class believes they can keep cops, agents, and soldiers in line during the messy but needed eradication of America’s underclass. West Point’s commie infiltration and police being okay with arresting churchgoers outdoors makes them think they can pull it off. This guy probably would be on board.

Deplorables are preparing. The Western Rifle Shooters Association warns: “Don’t lose. You really won’t like what the Communists have planned for you and your family.” American Partisan is telling readers to get trained for the inevitable. The Captain’s Journal has a post up on tactics for “American Civil War II.” T.L. Davis is more pessimistic.

A few years ago everyone might have yawned if a leftist operative posing as a journalist at the New Republic casually suggested it’s time to ditch the Constitution. Today nerves are raw. One response to the operative’s proposal got sporty:

A couple of newsrooms hit with 3-4 deathsquad style hits and that’ll shut them down quickly. Target the local newsmen/wimmen with precise assassinations and they’ll shortly get the idea. Right now, they feel impervious b/c -no one- has legitimately targeted them.

A libertarian writer proposes the same approach to topple the left’s stronghold of academia:

Send the tanks into Harvard and knock down their newer and uglier buildings… Once Harvard and Yale is rolled up, the schools will roll up… The enemy pretends to have decentralized and dispersed power, but its power is in fact highly centralized and concentrated, and thus highly vulnerable to a small amount of precisely targeted violence.

This type of talk once was limited to essays like Dear Mr. Security Agent, or maybe private conversations among Oath Keepers or Three Percenters. Now it’s mainstream.

Angelo Codevilla, a former U.S. Navy officer, Senate staffer, and Boston University professor, warned his readers last week they are “living in territory controlled by enemy tribes” and should form armed “self-defense groups.” Retired U.S. Army Infantry colonel turned lawyer Kurt Schlichter says the left is “co-opting the ingrained sense of duty in our cops and warriors as a means to manipulate them into being the enforcement mechanism for the tyranny the elite left dreams of imposing.” A Chicago Sun-Times opinion article predicts a “full-on purge of ‘deplorables’ by any means necessary.”

This is a warning sign blinking blood red. If the left were rational, it would give them pause. But that is not happening. Our betters are talking up “guillotines” and becoming increasingly unhinged. As author James Howard Kunstler writes, the left is “not just having a tantrum, now they’re chewing up the furniture, ululating, beating their flanks, discharging gobs of snot, peeing their panties, and foaming at the mouth.”

We must acknowledge the possibility that our would-be rulers are divorced from reality. After all, elites denning in coastal enclaves need only interact with the underclass when their $20,000 Rancilio Classe 20 espresso maker requires repairs. One hopes the maid can handle the service call and will remember to air out the kitchen wing afterward.

In the real world outside coastal enclaves, plenty has been written about what happens when normal Americans decide that anti-constitutionalists have seized power and will never relinquish it voluntarily.

In Absolved, by the late Mike Vanderboegh, the problem of anti-constitutionalist federal lawyers is solved ballistically. The result:

The federal regulatory enforcement machine ground to a screeching halt. Tens of thousands of court cases, enforcement actions, civil forfeitures and investigations were stopped in their tracks. Federal judges quit too, by the dozens, electing to get out of the line of fire until this Fourth Generation civil war was settled, one way or the other.

The mid-1990s novel Unintended Consequences introduced an anti-constitutionalist congressman to a “16-ounce Estwing framing hammer.” The Bonner Incident: Joshua’s War describes a nationwide uprising against anti-constitutionalist federal agents, who soon switch to an honest line of work. These are not the left’s chimeric white supremacists. In Enemies Foreign and Domestic, it was a black retired sergeant major who responded to the anti-constitutionalists by blowing up the Woodrow Wilson Memorial Bridge in Virginia.

Knowing a train wreck could happen is not the same as preventing one. A 1990 National Intelligence Estimate predicted: “Yugoslavia will cease to function as a federal state within one year and will probably dissolve within two. Economic reform will not stave off the breakup.” This was made public through a leak to the Washington Post.

The NIE was stunningly prescient. Yugoslavia imploded a year or so later. Everyone knew the train wreck was likely. Nobody stopped it.

Our elites could reduce tensions. They could rein in their street commies, renounce threats of court packing, and reverse their position on abolishing the Electoral College and statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Perhaps they could even say they will accept a President Trump electoral win, agree that it’s unacceptable to be fired for attending a Trump rally, and so on. Congress could reprimand, censure, or expel its members who endorse violence against political opponents. Longer term re-stabilization could devolve power from Washington, D.C. to state governments. California could ban pickups and mandate abortions, while Texas could do the opposite. Nobody would love it, but the republic would survive.

None of this should be taken as endorsing violence. Predictions are not wishes. There still is time for our would-be rulers to step away from the precipice.

 

An Interesting Perspective on Civil War…

Original, here.  Check out the comments, too!

Yes, We Are Headed for Violent Civil War

On October 1st, with little fanfare, Politico published an extraordinary opinion piece that may be the most important thing I’ve read all year. Titled “Americans Increasingly Believe Violence is Justified if the Other Side Wins,” the essay was penned by three “senior fellows” at the Hoover Institution, New America, and the Hudson Institute, as well as a professor of “political communication” at Louisiana State University and a professor of government at the University of Maryland (that’s five authors, in case you lost count).

The major takeaway is presented in the graph that appears below:

Way back in November of 2017 (my, how long ago that seems . . . ) a mere 8% of both Democrats and Republicans held that it is legitimate to use violence to advance their political goals. Actually, there’s nothing “mere” about it. It ought to surprise us that such a sizeable percentage of both parties could hold such a radical view. Also surprising is Republicans running neck and neck with Democrats. Contrary to how they are perceived by Leftists, conservatives are slow to embrace the idea of violence, or any sort of punitive measures against their opponents. Their Achilles heel, in fact, is commitment to “fair play.”

We must remember that when these numbers were compiled it had been a year since the 2016 election. A year of unhinged rhetoric by the Left, and repeated calls for Trump to be assassinated. Madonna spoke about her fantasies of blowing up the White House, and “comedian” Kathy Griffin held up an effigy of Trump’s severed head. Of course, those were the unserious, tongue-in-cheek threats. Countless other people made similar threats, quite openly, and seemed to be pretty serious about it. To my knowledge, none of them was charged with a crime.

As Trump Derangement Syndrome continued to spread, it was actually a healthy sign that more Republicans began to entertain the idea of using violence as a political tool. Leftists presented themselves as having no boundaries. There was no low to which they would not stoop, no trick too dirty. They were threatening to attack and kill not only the President, but his supporters, and, in fact, the entire white race. They made it quite clear that they could not be reasoned with. Faced with an enemy like this, violence was bound to become more attractive, or at least more justifiable, in the eyes of even the most mild-mannered Republican voter.

Almost a year later, in October 2018, the percentage of Democrats condoning violence had jumped to 13. It had become obvious to them, at this point, that the results of the 2016 election were not going to be reversed, though many still held out the hope that Robert Mueller would uncover some dirt that would prove Trump’s undoing. True to form, conservatives lagged behind (see what nice people we are?), with a mere 11% condoning violence. Still, the number had risen. At least part of this has to be attributed to the Kavanaugh hearings (of September-October), which were a wakeup call for many Republicans, including Lindsay Graham, who seems to have sort of lost his innocence as a result. The hearings proved once and for all, if any more proof had been needed, that liberals have no principles whatever, and that attempts to play fair with them will only backfire. One can’t really blame Republicans for that 11%. Please pass the ammo.

But we hadn’t seen anything yet. That was before COVID and BLM. By June of the current year, these percentages had doubled, and Dems and Republicans were now equally in favor of breaking heads: 30% of both groups now condoned violence to advance political goals. Let us pause to consider this number once more: 30%. Let us also pause to consider that this poll was conducted at the beginning of June, when the George Floyd riots had just gotten going.By December 2019, things had gotten genuinely scary. The trend had continued. And how. This was the month that the House approved articles of impeachment against Trump. Earlier in the year, in April, the Mueller report was made public, revealing that we had been subjected to two solid years of hysteria about “Russia collusion” for absolutely no reason whatever. The libs were frustrated, to put it mildly. 16% of them now condoned violence. Republicans were behind the curve again, but not by much, with 15% of them thinking the same way.

By September 1st, the percentage of liberals condoning violence had risen by just three points. Still, at 33% this constitutes one third of all Dems. The more interesting result came from the Republicans, however. The percentage in question had risen to 36%, and for the first time Republicans rated as more violence-approving than Dems. If you will read the fine print, you will find that the September poll’s margin of error is 2.0 percentage points. Thus, the three percentage points separating Republicans from Democrats are statistically significant; conservatives are now demonstrably more in favor of violence than liberals.

Has the sleeping giant awakened?

We were slow to consider violence an option. Unlike liberals, after all, we really do have principles, and we did not want to be like them. But they have pushed us to this point, and it’s difficult to see how there can be any debate about that. Months of watching our cities burn. Months of our history being torn down. Months of draconian lockdowns and arbitrary rules imposed by Democrat governors and mayors. Months of being told that we had to shelter in place, while BLM was given free rein to loot and burn. Months of being told we have no right to defend ourselves; that if you are white, you are automatically guilty. Countless lives and businesses destroyed. Given all of this, and more, it’s surprising that the number isn’t 56% — or 76% or 86%. But since many conservatives are probably afraid to say they might condone violence, I think we can round that 36% up a bit. Quite a bit.

The other day I spoke with a friend who lives in New York. He told me that he recently drove to his local rifle range, which he has visited many times in the past. He had not been there for several months, however, and when he arrived he was shocked to find a line stretching out the door (made up entirely of white people) and what wound up being a 45 minute wait. When he finally got inside, he asked the proprietor about the large turnout and was told that it had been like this every weekend since the BLM riots began, and that the numbers were increasing. I hope all those folks brought their own ammo, because my friend also told me the store was completely sold out. And this was New York, not South Carolina.

Two weeks prior to the Politico essay, The Hill published an opinion piece by a former federal prosecutor titled “Why Democrats Must Confront Extreme Left-wing Incitement to Violence.” It’s a weak and cowardly piece of writing but is nevertheless interesting on multiple levels. The author begins by asserting that Right-wing groups “by far pose the greatest threat of violence.” He bases this on a study by something called the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This group looked at 900 cases of politically motivated plots or attacks since 1994, and concluded that Right-wing extremists had claimed the lives of 329 people, whereas “Antifa members haven’t killed any.”

This is like somebody saying, in January of 2020, “Over the last 25 years, seasonal flu has claimed the lives of 890,000 Americans,[1] but COVID-19 hasn’t killed any Americans. Therefore, the flu is the real threat.” This would have been a ridiculous position, because COVID was something new and entirely unknown. We had no way of knowing, in January, how dangerous COVID was going to be. And, since then, it has, in fact, claimed far more American lives than the flu ever takes in a given year.

Similarly, since May we have seen Left-wing violence the likes of which this country has not seen since the 1960s. And this phenomenon is fundamentally new because it has been condoned and encouraged by state and local officials, prominent Democrats in Congress, and establishment journalists and pundits. The authors of the CSIS study warn of the dangers posed by groups like the “boogaloos,” a group of “Right-wing, anti-government extremists” bent on “creating a civil war in the United States.” Oddly enough, I’d never heard of the boogaloos until reading this article, and I think I’m pretty “plugged in.”

I know nothing about this group, but I do know one thing for certain: if the boogaloos, or any other “Right-wing extremists” took to the streets and behaved as BLM and Antifa have behaved – looting, burning, assaulting, threatening, or even just blocking traffic – they would have been crushed within twenty-four hours. All the might of state and local police forces and federal law enforcement would have been unleashed against them, and the cops would not have played nice. Many “Right-wingers” would have wound up dead or injured, and the survivors would have faced extensive criminal charges.

This, gentle reader, is why “Right-wing violence” is not the greater threat. Left-wing violence is taking place with the approval and support, financial and otherwise, of the establishment. It is a threat to all ordinary Americans, especially white Americans. Right-wing violence only poses a threat (so far, a very mild one) to the establishment.

The author of The Hill piece, while claiming that Right-wingers pose the greatest threat, wishes nonetheless to warn liberals that their own people are becoming far more violent and that they need to address this problem. This is after referring to the riots we’ve seen since May as “overwhelmingly peaceful social justice protests.” But he fears Democrats aren’t listening:

Perhaps Democrats are afraid of leaving the impression of a false equivalency between extreme right- and left-wing violence. Perhaps they are fearful that acknowledging the threat posed by extreme left-wing incitement gives credibility to Trump’s false narrative that Democrat-run cities are burning because of left-wing violence (they are not burning) and his promotion of outlandish conspiracy theories, such as that people in “the dark shadows” allegedly control Joe Biden.

In other words, the author, a Leftist in deep denial about the threat posed by the Left, wonders why the Left is in such deep denial about the threat posed by itself. You can’t make this stuff up.

If Biden does win, and if the Democrats manage to gain complete control of Congress, we can look forward to an assault on the first and second amendment rights of Americans, in the form of hate speech legislation and gun control. Further, Biden and Harris have signaled that they will pack the Supreme Court – simply by repeatedly refusing to answer the question of whether they will. Democrats are also likely to grant statehood to the District of Columbia (thus increasing their numbers in Congress), amnesty millions of illegals and put them on a fast track to citizenship, and abolish the Electoral College.In August, Joe Biden asked “Does anyone believe there will be less violence in America if Donald Trump is reelected?” This was widely interpreted by conservatives as a threat. The truth is that the violence will continue regardless of who wins the election. Trump’s reelection will guarantee further violence by the Left. But since Democrats have encouraged the violence and done nothing to contain it, there is every reason to believe that it will continue if Biden wins. Indeed, the “hands off” attitude the establishment has taken to Left-wing violence makes it almost inevitable that the violence will escalate, meaning that it will become more deadly. The Far Left has been emboldened.

This is, quite simply, a recipe for civil war – of some kind or other. It is certainly a recipe for the further fragmentation of the country. 62% of white men voted for Trump in 2016, and none of them wants what I have just indicated the Democrats have to offer. The elimination of the Electoral College, if it happens, could be the country’s tipping point toward dissolution. It would mean that millions of Americans in the heartland of the country (most of them white) would be politically disenfranchised. The situation in the US is already volatile; the disenfranchisement of large numbers of citizens would make it much worse. This is particularly true given that those citizens are the backbone of the country: their decency, hard work, and tax money keep it afloat. It is unlikely that those people would readily accept living at the mercy of a combination of urban elites and non-white freeloaders.

Of course, the same situation would be created if demographic projections are borne out, and whites become a minority by 2044, regardless of what happens to the Electoral College. And the re-election of the hapless Trump would not even slow this process. Given demographics, our long-term prospect is a Democratic takeover. So that even if Democrats lose in 2020 – even if they lose big – everything I projected above about what the Democrats will do when they take power is still going to happen, it just may take a little longer.

My own prediction for what will happen to the US is that it will eventually split up along racial and political lines. Already, there is hardly any “union” to assess the state of. Further, all signs now indicate that this is not going to be a peaceful process. The Left began the violence, and they have now succeeded in pushing a whopping 36% of conservatives to approve of answering violence with violence.

My readers on the Right, who are far more discerning than average folks, may be skeptical for different reasons. According to some of them, the chances of violent civil war or revolution are zero, since the establishment has far greater firepower. As I said above, if the Right took to the streets like BLM, they would be mercilessly crushed. But suppose they did it again. And again. And suppose the anger that sent them out into the streets did not diminish, but increased. It is naïve to think that determined individuals, through persistent guerilla warfare and other forms of resistance, cannot destabilize a government – especially when the government is run by decadent, out-of-touch elites who inhabit an ideological and social bubble. It has happened before, and can happen again.Some of my readers will greet these claims with skepticism. Average Americans find it impossible to imagine their country disintegrating in violent conflict. This is the result of years of propaganda about the “stability” of our Republic, the “miracle” of our peaceful transfer of power every four years, yada yada. Average Americans are bizarrely oblivious to just how violent this country really is and always has been (something that has not escaped the notice of the rest of the world): sky-high rates of murder, rape, and assault; urban riots every few years; the assassination of political figures; regular “spree killings”; and a civil war that claimed the lives of around 700 thousand people. Average folks may not want to think about it, but a second civil war is quite plausible.

Of course, the goal should not be “revolution.” There is no reason to want to “take over” the United States, because it is not desirable that the United States should continue to exist. We don’t want to live with these people anymore, even if we are the ones “in charge.” Instead, what we should aim for is independence – in other words, the partitioning of the country; carving our own country out of this country and saying goodbye to those other people. Folks, it’s either that or persuade the Europeans that we have the right of return. But that’s not going to happen.

So here are my predictions for the near future:

Left-wing violence will continue, indeed it will escalate. However, white conservatives will be increasingly willing to challenge Leftists in the streets. The Politico numbers persuasively suggest that this is likely, and we already see signs of it (notably, the Kyle Rittenhouse episode). A Trump loss will further radicalize many white conservatives. A Trump win will also radicalize white conservatives, because the response will be even more violence from Leftists. The continued anti-white rhetoric, which shows no signs of abating, will also do the work of radicalization. I predict that we will see more acts of domestic terrorism perpetrated by Right-wing groups, and that many new such groups will spring up in the next several years. These acts will be heavily condemned by all the usual suspects, but this will have little effect, since the double standard is now too obvious. Even Mom and Dad, drinking Snapple and watching Hannity, will now approve of Right-wing violence. Unlikely? Look at that chart above and think again. How likely is it that the trend has peaked at 36%?

I also predict that we will see cases of mini-secessions, in which towns, cities, and counties that are largely white and Republican will begin resisting the power of state and federal governments (e.g., not enforcing certain laws). This will make parts of the country hard to govern. These areas will become a mecca for white conservatives. They will grow in population and geographic reach, as new arrivals take residence just over county or city lines. Tired of the dirty looks they get, many non-whites and liberals will go elsewhere. In short, there will be de facto secession before secession is ever made official.

By the way, had I made prognostications about “civil war” as little as a year ago, I would have done so with the caveat “probably not in our lifetime.” Now I am definitely not so sure. It’s hard to believe, but the scenario envisioned by Chuck Palahniuk in Adjustment Day is becoming more plausible with each passing week.

Note

[1] A guestimate: each year the flu claims the lives of between 30,000-50,000 Americans.

4th Generation War Comes to a Theater Near You…

H/T Wirecutter….again!  This guy scoops a LOT of blogs!!!  Goon on him!  Original, here.  Be sure to read the comments.

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Fourth Generation War Comes to a Theater Near You

Mobs loot, burn, and vandalize while politicians advocate defunding the police. A commune was established in Seattle and turned into Lord of the Flies while government did nothing. Blacks demand equal treatment from police despite a violent crime rate many times greater than that of whites, and mainstream media will not report honestly the differences in crime rates. “Wokeness” spreads among idle youth who flunked English 101. What is going on?

What is going on, right here on American soil, is war; a new kind of war that is also very old, waged by entities other than states. I call it Fourth Generation War and, to paraphrase Leon Trotsky, you may not be interested in Fourth Generation War—but it is interested in you.

In the 1980s, when working with the Marine Corps, I came up with an intellectual framework I call the Four Generations of Modern War. Military historian Martin van Creveld’s books The Rise and Decline of the State and The Transformation of War are foundational works in my framework, which flows from one of the defining elements of the modern age, the rise of the state.

The Four Generations framework begins in 1648, when in the Peace of Westphalia the state claimed and subsequently enforced a monopoly on war. This seems automatic to us today; war means armies, navies, and air forces of a state or an alliance of states fighting similar armed forces belonging to other states.

But war’s definition was not always so narrow. Before Westphalia, many different kinds of entities fought wars: families (think of the Montagues and Capulets from Romeo and Juliet), clans, tribes, races, religions, and even business enterprises. India was conquered not by Great Britain, but by the British East India Company, a business with an army and a fleet. They used many different tools to fight; for the most part, armies and navies as we know them did not exist. Fighters ranged from every male able to carry a weapon, through poisoners inserted in a rival’s kitchen, to highly specialized mercenaries who hired themselves out to anyone with cash. The Grimaldis, whose descendents still rule Monaco, got their start as galley fleet entrepreneurs.

People fought for many different reasons, not just raison d’état (political reasons). They fought for eternal salvation, for slaves to sell, for booty, for land, for pay, and because young men with idle hands like to fight—and the local women liked fighters. War flowed not like the Arno but like the Everglades, slowly inundating everything.

The state, as it arose beginning around the year 1500, gradually put an end to this.  The state came to impose and sustain order and the safety of persons and property. War not made by states threatened that order. So, the state rounded up the non-state fighters and hanged them from the nearest tree, to the loud huzzahs of the population.

The First Generation War ran from Westphalia to about the middle of the 19th century. I discuss this period in detail  in my book co-authored with Lt. Col. Gregory A. Thiele, 4th Generation Warfare Handbook (2015). It was a time characterized by tactics of line and column, which led to (for the most part) orderly battlefields which led in turn to a military culture of order.

That culture continues in almost all state armed forces today. That’s a problem, because starting in the mid-19th century the battlefield became steadily more disorderly. Part of the reason state militaries now so often lose against rag-tag opponents is that they have in effect one foot on the dock and one foot on the boat.

Second and Third Generation War were both attempts to deal with the growing disorder of the battlefield, and both came out of World War I. Second Generation War was developed by the French Army. It reduced war to a highly centralized process of putting firepower on targets, a process that both upheld and required a culture of order. Third Generation War came out of the German experience in World War I. Commonly known as “Blitzkrieg” in its World War II manifestation, it sought not to control but to use the disorder of the battlefield through a military culture of maneuver, speed, decentralization, and encouragement of initiative.

When the Second and Third Generations met in 1940, the latter defeated the former in six weeks, even though the French had more and better tanks than the Germans. Ideas, not weapons, were decisive—which has not prevented the U.S. armed forces from clinging to Second Generation tactics even today. They don’t work, but no one seems to care anymore that we lose wars, so long as the money keeps flowing.

Enter Fourth Generation War. All over the world, state militaries find themselves fighting not other mirror-image state armed forces but the ghosts of premodern war. Once again, many different kinds of entities are fighting wars: clans, tribes, races, religions, businesses we call drug cartels, and so on. They use many different means, not just armies; invasion by immigration is perhaps the most dangerous. And almost always, the state armed forces, despite vast combat power superiority, lose.

At the crux of Fourth Generation War is a crisis of the legitimacy of the state. This crisis varies greatly in intensity from one state to another, but almost everywhere we see people in growing numbers transfer their primary loyalty away from the state to non-state entities: race, religion, ideology, or political causes such as animal rights, etc. Many of those people, who would never fight for their state, are willing, even eager, to fight for their new primary loyalty. The consequence is that the state loses the monopoly on war it claimed at Westphalia. As van Creveld says, the key change in the Fourth Generation is not how war is fought (although that does change), but who fights and what they fight for.

That is much of what we have seen going on in our streets over the past few months. Fourth Generation War has come to a theater near you. A variety of Fourth Generation “causes” have intersected with what I call a “supply-side war.” We have millions of kids who have been cooped up for two or three months. They have no work or school. They want an excuse to go out and fight, because that is what bored young people like to do. Especially young men; young women will demonstrate but when fighting starts they usually disappear.

These youths need a cause to plead in answer to adults’ demand for “social distancing.” It doesn’t matter what the cause is; saving the pangolins could work as well as “Black Lives Matter.” Supply-side war provides the raw material in youthful fighters, while Fourth Generation War gives them something to fight for, a new primary loyalty to replace duty to country. And the state proves itself impotent against its own progeny. We have seen this same supply-side war dynamic in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, and most of West Africa. Now we are seeing it in Chicago and Portland.

Conservatives know that the fall of the state is catastrophic. Life becomes, as our old friend Thomas Hobbes said, nasty, brutish, and short. A friend of mine has used Hobbes’ name as a pseudonym to pen a novel about this situation erupting in America, entitled Victoria: A Novel of Fourth Generation War (2014).

Security forces may put down individual disorders (and they should), but the only way to defeat Fourth Generation War is to restore the legitimacy of the state, to the point where it again becomes the primary loyalty of most of its citizens. What is the prospect for that in the United States of America in the year 2020? As President Trump would say, “Not good.”

We face a bifurcated culture. The elite that controls the state has for decades waged war on the common culture in the name of the ideology of cultural Marxism, also known as “wokeness.” While many Americans who cling to our historic Western, Christian culture also remain loyal to the state, their position is unsustainable because the Deep State is dominated by cultural Marxists.

Conservatives’ loyalty to America is to an America that has largely disappeared among elites. At some point, they too will transfer their primary loyalty to something other than the America we know now. Probably they will transfer it to many things, not just one, adding to the disintegrative forces working on the state.

Restoring the legitimacy of the state requires a federal government that actually cares about America “beyond the beltway,” and neither political party offers that. Washington has become a classic royal court toward the end of a dynasty. Court politics is everything; the rest of the country is only a stupid cow to be milked and beaten.

Some years ago, when I lived in D.C., I enjoyed a lunch with the third secretary of the Russian Embassy. We agreed that the United States had become a one-party state, which is something Russians know something about. The one party is the Establishment Party, and no matter which of its wings win, the Democrats or the Republicans, nothing important changes. The same people get the same old jobs, the money keeps flowing into bottomless sinkholes (welfare spending for Democrats, military spending for Republicans), everyone in town prospers and the rest of the country becomes poorer.

The 2016 presidential election broke from this script. Donald Trump, who was not a member of the one party and who dared defy cultural Marxism (any member of the Establishment who does that instantly becomes an “un-person”), grabbed the brass ring. That is the one party’s ultimate nightmare, that someone breaks their lock on policy, power, and money. The Establishment’s bitter, rabid hatred for President Trump springs from that fact and that fact alone. What he says or does is immaterial. Were he St. Francis of Assisi returned to mortal life, their vitriol toward him would be no less.

Regrettably, even if Trump wins re-election, he will be able to do little to restore the state’s legitimacy—a legitimacy he represents to many who voted for him, who in turn are further alienated from the state by the Establishment’s hatred of their champion. The one party owns the Deep State, which has served them well by sabotaging almost everything the president has tried to do. What he has attempted has often been right and good, but the list of his accomplishments is short.

The Deep State’s lock on effective action by the state makes the quest to restore its legitimacy nigh on hopeless. Only a state that works for all Americans, that effectively provides order, competent services, and gradually increasing prosperity for all, not just more riches for the royal court, can be legitimate. The one thing Americans, right and left, can probably agree on is that the chances of that occurring are slim to none.

So, is the future of the American state hopeless? Probably. I can see three possible outcomes to the crisis of legitimacy of the American state.

The first is that the dynasty falls and a competent new establishment class replaces it, one that can make the federal government work for everyone and that ceases to wage ideological war on its own people. In theory, this is possible, but I see no signs of it happening, nor any forces on the horizon that are capable of doing it. The system is so loaded against third parties that this route is effectively blocked. The Democrats are hopelessly in thrall to cultural Marxism because their base either believes in it, profits from it, or both. President Trump has shown himself incapable of remaking the Republican Party in his anti-Establishment, politically incorrect image. Could his successor do it, perhaps someone such as Tucker Carlson? Hope springs eternal, but hope is also a fool.

A second possibility is that both left and right could see the horrors that widespread Fourth Generation War on American soil would bring, step back, and work together to avoid it. There is a way to do that, by returning to American federalism as it was practiced before 1860.

When the Constitution was drafted and ratified, none of the men involved ever imagined that life in, say, Massachusetts and South Carolina would become the same. Still less did they conceive that the Constitution gave the federal government authority to make them the same. Were we to return to their understanding of federalism, we could maintain the union while accommodating cultural differences. Some states would be right, others left. If you found yourself being governed by people you despised, you would not need to fight. You could simply move. We would still be one country for foreign policy, defense, macroeconomics, and infrastructure. But leftists would be free to misrule the West Coast to their hearts’ content, while conservatives enjoyed the neighborliness and good food of the Old South.

The third and most likely possibility is that the country breaks apart in widespread Fourth Generation War. Welcome to Libya, Syria, and a growing portion of the world.

If the third possibility becomes reality and America as we know it disappears from the world’s landscape, its vanishing will be part of something larger: the end of the modern age that gave birth to the state.

As the late Jeffrey Hart wrote, the modern age began when Western men discarded metaphysics and said, in effect, “We are no longer interested in questions of ultimate meaning; from now on, we care only about the physical world.” From that time onward, a focus on the practical defined modernity. Out of it came ships that could cross oceans and navigation to guide them; steam power, then electricity, medicine that allowed Western men to live anywhere in the world; and, by the beginning of the 20th century, world domination by the Christian West.

We threw away that domination in three great Western civil wars: World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. Now, the West is just one contending culture among many, the state to which the West gave birth is failing everywhere, and the questions of ultimate meaning that modernity discarded are returning to haunt its senescence.

Can the times be redeemed? Probably not, but as men of the West, we must try.

William Lind

 

William S. Lind is a columnist for The American Conservative and the agent for Thomas Hobbes’s novel Victoria, which is a follow-on to his earlier smash hit, Leviathan.

Want to See if You’re on the ‘Target’ List?

Go here. You can search by name or location. Forewarned is forearmed.

Read the article describing the site as well as incidents of, ‘night letters’ to a few Trump supporters threatening to burn their houses down on an embedded video.

Truth be told, even if you didn’t support the President financially or have signs in your yard or wore a MAGA hat, your liberal acquaintances know where you stand, and won’t blink when turning your name in to the ‘reconciliation’ committee that’s formed for your little corner of the country.

These  communists mean business.