In Part I, all we covered was the possible POI (Plan of Instruction) or OPLAN (Operations Plan) of a group/gang that is planning to leech off of preppers, NPT’s, or anyone who’s had the foresight to prepare for bad times once SHTF.
In this installment, we’ll speculate at how they might implement the items in Part I.
First, let’s look at the foundation: Member selection, vetting, and training. Just as their POI/OPLAN outline has no room for games, so will the leader’s selection, vetting, and training of his/her members (yes, there will be female gang leaders who will be just as vicious if not more than their male counterparts, so count on it).
The best type of personality the leader can hope to get is a border line sociopath. This person doesn’t feel the same things the same way as ‘normal’ people. He or she can do things without ever feeling remorse or hesitation, because they aren’t connected emotionally to the world and people around them. A very informative article on sociopaths and their make up is here. Sobering, to say the least. Just this bit of information should provide even more motivation to get off the couch and out of the house doing constructive things to build your NPT as well as starting to look at various people you associate with a more critical eye.
So, from there, the leader gets his four to six people that are Beta (follower) type borderline or full fledged sociopaths that either have former military or law enforcement experience or want to ‘learn the tricks of the trade’.
The training would be most likely different in some aspects of ‘normal’ NPT training in that the feral group may conduct overt criminal activity to ‘get in shape’ as a group. An example of this might be something like the power plant that was shot up some time back. It wasn’t until well after the incident that it was described as ‘terrorism’ by ‘a group of snipers’ against a public utility. It may not have had anything to do with a feral group, but the example of how training may differ is valid.
Once SHTF, this feral group/gang is most likely going to select a primary base of operations is a secure and obsure location, difficult to locate and even more difficult to attack or capture. It will most likely be located away from their chosen AO(s) but close enough to travel over a period of days either on foot or horseback, possibly even vehicles, depending on resources held. It will have room for group member expansion, as they recruit or capture people with necessary skill sets or other value (possibly women for sex slavery and children for mundane base maintenance tasks). So, for awhile, you’re not going to see these people, unless they’ve selected and stocked their base prior to SHTF. If they have, they’re far more along than most preppers or NPT functions.
The first thing they’re going to do is to begin general reconnaissance operations with a ‘no contact’ rule. They’re not going to want to be seen or have any issues with anyone. So, they may just wander the countryside in pairs looking like refugees taking notes on what they see or find. Interesting sites may have them stopping at gates and asking for a meal or water or something of no value to allow them to get a good mental picture of the possible target while they’re allowed to stand and observe everything and anything in front of them. (Should you find yourself in the situation of people being at your gate, make sure you observe the ‘refugees’ carefully and have someone watch their actions carefully, because this could be stage one of their target selection.)
After they’ve done this for awhile (anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, depending on how many possible targets they find), they’ll regroup and discuss/determine the results of the initial ‘light’ reconnaissance and determine which area/target provides the best opportunities. Once complete, stage two reconnaissance will begin on one or more targets if they have enough team members. This detailed reconnaissance will take a week, possibly more. They won’t want to be seen, but they’ll be after all the information listed in Part I:
- Observe and understand the demographics, the background, target interaction, timing, things that stand out.
- Is there anything on this ranch/home/farm/cabin worth having?
- Is there anything on this ranch/home/farm/cabin worth getting shot at for?
- How well is it defended?
- Are there indications of professional military onsite?
- Does the terrain lend itself to attack or defense?
- Do the target structures appear to be combustible?
- Do the avenues of approach favor close attack?
- Do the avenues of approach provide concealment to close proximity of the target?
When the detailed recon is complete, they’ll move to the temporary patrol base they’ve been using during the recon and follow their next steps:
- Qualifying the Target(s) – Which target(s) provide the least costly opportunity for attack?
- Selection – Best target costs the least in risk, ammo, and personnel.
- Goals for Each Target – What is the desired end result?
- Planning – Examine all recon Intel on targets and determine which plan is most feasible.
- Staging – Determining which target is attacked first, second, third, etc, and to what level of destruction.
They’ll take their time with all the tasks listed so far. This won’t be a ‘fire drill’. They want to get it right; remember, they’re after YOUR property and YOUR family. They don’t know what or if you know anything about effective defense. They’re hoping that YOU sit in your basement or house and think you are impregnable. If their recon proves this to be true, or indicates it’s true to a large extent, you’ve got trouble. Remember, these are sociopathic personalities at best, and just plain evil at worst. They do not fear you, your AR, or your Pit Yorkshire Terrier. They are looking to take you and your location down.
They’ll start by letting you know they’re around. Possibly cutting a fence cable, or slitting a car tire, or letting you see them for a few seconds before they disappear in the surrounding terrain while you, with your heart in your throat, run to get your AR (which should be on you at all times, right?). This is Stage 1 of the attack.
Stage 2 will come in a day or two, even three. This is when they will start to intimidate you by shooting a vehicle, shooting a few rounds into your retreat structure from different directions, or making sure you are awake 24 hours a day to wear you down. This stage may last as long as a week. You’re cut off, you can’t leave, and they own everything around you. And both you and they know it.
Stage 3 will be their final recon and if they have dogs, they’ll use them to find any ambush you might have decided to execute or booby traps you might have set. They’ll come in close, basically anywhere they think you might be in hiding waiting to fight them outside your retreat’s perimeter. When they determine there’s no danger of being hit in the rear once they attack, then they’ll move on to Stage 4.
Stage 4 will be the opening phase of the actual attack. They’ll initially use suppressing fire on your primary structure where you have your family corraled to keep you inside while they kill any dogs you have and take whatever resources you can’t physically protect. Like horses in a barn, say, that an assault element can get to without danger of being shot by you. Then, once that’s accomplished, they’ll tell you (if they’re going to let you live) that they’ll stop if you provide ______________ (fill in the blank). Once you agree, they might or might not keep their word, remember, they’re sociopaths, and they’re telling you what you want to hear to achieve their goal as cheaply as they can in terms of ammo and personnel loss.
Depending on how things are going and if you’ve capitulated, they’ll move to Stage 5 and assess their progress, determining if they need to pull the plug or finish you off. Know that if you’ve held out, their ‘break contact’ drill will not be just melting away into the surrounding terrain. They will be pissed off that they can’t take you down and will try to destroy as much of your property and kill as many of your people as can be seen. Remember, these won’t be your typical gang-bangers. Chances are very good that these people can shoot accurately out to the maximum effective ranges of their platforms. Keep that in mind.
They might give you another ultimatum, they might not. It would make sense that unless they have to burn the place down to win, they will keep at it to get your supplies and any women available.
Stage 6: Win or lose, they’re going to hold an AAR (After Action Report) and a ‘Hot Wash’ where they talk about what went right, what went wrong, and how they need to adapt to complete an operation more efficiently. You’ve been their classroom.
Welcome to the world of Neighborhood Protection in a WROL/SHTF scenario.
Next installment: Your best weapon against these people.
Note: Analysis based upon scenarios presented in the book, “Doomsday Marauders,” by Kilkenny. For more information and DTG’s view of this book, go here.